"Running out of oil"

James Howard Kunstler opines on one of his major concerns: "running out of oil" and reports indirectly --- via the principal of a site where you can also learn about the dark machinations around 9-11 --- about a conference on the the Study of Peak Oil.

The message emerging from the meeting is that the world may have already entered the unchartered territory of global oil depletion -- that is, the downside of "Hubbert's Curve," the bell graph first used by Shell Oil geologist M. King Hubbert in 1956 to describe the destiny of the world's oil supplies.

After a recitation of indicators from the Conference that we are indeed using a lot of oil and may very well have less tomorrow than we do today, Jim asks us to "Go ahead and draw some conclusions." (I thought of how Clint Eastwood would have delivered that line.)

I guess I shouldn't make light of the matter, as I love to drive my car, but barring political cataclysms, it seems to me that "running out of oil" will be a relatively gradual affair. The downside of Hubbert's Curve is a slope, not a cliff.

The first indication of short supplies will be that prices will go up i.e. we will pay more for gasoline, natural gas, heating oil, etc etc--- thus giving people a --- duh --- hint and encouragement to look for new sources of energy. It won't be catastrophic. There will be years and decades of increasing prices which will give us all time to adjust through conservation, development of alternative energy sources and so forth. If we are too stupid to adjust, we will have problems. Am I missing something?

Comments

[Christine]

Well I think that the so-called mechanics should make more of those cars that run on very little gas.And make them more cheaper so lots of people can bye and use them.

[Omni]

If oil prices go up and income levels stay the same in the Northeast, I'm concerned that the economy will take a major hit. Robert Kennedy's discount oil will have a banner season.

[sticker guy]

Someone needs to make a bunch of bumper stickers, "Support Al Qaeda. Buy more gas to help finance terrorism" and find good places to put them

[I. E.]

The problem is that there are 6 times as many people now as when we went up the slope, so it is possible the slope will be 6x steeper on the way down...like a cliff.