Councilman David Della writes:
For the sake of safety and jobs, let's rebuild the risky viaduct.
Alternatively, building a new, stronger viaduct is estimated to cost between $2.7 billion and $3.1 billion and is projected to take between six and eight years to build.
Besides my astonishment that it is projected to take six to eight years to tear down and rebuild 1.5 miles of elevated freeway, and further, that no one seems to find such a timeframe curious, here's my question: If we can do without the viaduct for a construction period of. say, seven years, why can't we do without the Viaduct for seven decades?
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Some extremely brief background on a complex subject. In the early1950's Seattle built an elevated highway along its downtown waterfront. It runs for about 1.5 miles. By all claims the viaduct is prone to collapse in case of an earthquake; many people I know are scared to drive on it. The Mayor and City Council chose a tunnel to replace the viaduct in order to — it is also claimed — "connect the city to its front door of Puget Sound." The tunnel is supposed to cost $4.5 billion. To tear-down and replace the viaduct is supposed to cost >$2 billion. (All these numbers are rough and I keep hearing them change all the time.) To rebuild the viaduct in-place — i.e to repair it in place section-by-section and keeping it continuously open to some traffic — is claimed to cost as much or more than a brand-new viaduct. The State has allocated $2 billion for the corridor, in whatever form is finally decided makes most sense. Our own senior Senator has told us that we should expect "no help" from Washington, D.C. A group of activists — the People's Waterfront Coalition — urge us to tear down the viaduct and leave it down, as, we are repeatedly told, was done in San Francisco. But whole neighborhoods — Ballard in particular — look to the viaduct as their transport connection to the rest of the world.
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Now, first-term Councilman Della breaks ranks with his senior colleagues and a tough Mayor. He steps out of line to urge that we give up the dream of the tunnel and simply rebuild the viaduct. (There's an interesting political story right there but it is not mine to tell right now.)
So here's my practical planning question:
If we can do without the viaduct for a construction period of seven
years, why can't we do without the Viaduct for seven decades?
I believe that that is the central political question surrounding the viaduct. Here's one scenario/prediction. The City turns on a dime and follows novice council-member Della's leadership and concedes that the tunnel is a no-go. So then people start focusing on the rebuild. The six to eight year construction period sticks in everyone's mind. "What will life be like? How will we manage? If we can accommodate a six to eight year construction period, maybe we can do without the viaduct completely?"
Others are starting to ask the same question:
If
a new freeway is built along Elliott Bay, Seattle will invest
substantial talent and resources to reduce traffic flows in that
corridor during construction, only to welcome the cars back upon
completion. We'll find ways to reroute cars onto existing streets or
take them off the road altogether in the service of a project that will
later encourage us to dispense with such innovation.
That meme will delight the tear-it-down folks but scare the bejeesus out of Ballard, whose residents and commercial interests are, I believe, fairly united in perceiving that the viaduct is their essential transportation artery. Ballard will turn on the complete rebuild option because it will be scared that once the viaduct is torn down and people see how nice it is without it and how the traffic can be accommodated, there will be pressure to scuttle the project. No sooner is that last question a common one — with a great number of Seattleites asking "Hey! If we don't need the viaduct for 6 to 8 years, maybe we can do without it forever?" — then the engineers will come up with a plan to rebuild the viaduct in-place. In exhaustion, in typical Seattle fashion, the Mayor and Council will agree to muddle in to the future.
My prediction, which you should understand is not necessarily my own first choice but simply an assessment of the politics: bet on a rebuild-in-place.
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UPDATE: One of the things to remember is that in terms of public perception, none of the transportation investments for the viaduct corridor do anything but maintain the status quo. Neither a tunnel nor a brand-new viaduct increase capacity though they arguably increase safety, so it'snot as though there is no pereceived gain. But the seven year disruption provides no easily-perceived transportation benefit. It's not as if one can say, "Well yes we'll suffer through construction for seven years and then we will have a nice 8-lane corridor through downtown." Most people will see that we already have an extremely efficient 8-lane corridor and all this effort will only maintain it. Once you are forced to take the tunnel off the table, then the tear-down & rebuild viaduct becomes a hard sell.