The game is just beginning

Letter from a group of eminent engineers to the Seattle City Council concerning the feasibility and advantages of retrofitting the existing Alaskan Way Viaduct:

May 2, 2006

Councilman Nick Licata,
President, Seattle City Council:

We the undersigned Structural Engineers wish to advise the City Council that the proposed Viaduct Tunnel and Rebuild now offered by WSDoT are totally unacceptable when there exists a viable and cost-effective alternative.

We support the Retrofit proposed by the Viaduct Preservation Group (“VPG”).  This Retrofit solution will protect the Alaskan Way Viaduct against earthquake collapse and provide for at least 50 years of service.  This work can be done without complete shutdown of SR 99.  Our first priority would be to fix the problems created by deferred maintenance.

This Viaduct Retrofit solution can be accomplished for less than $600 Million.  Seawall reconstruction can be pursued for $200 Million under an independent schedule and financing.  This compares with $3.6 Billion for the “core” Tunnel and $2.4 Billion for the “core” Rebuild.  Despite the possibility of longer life of new structures, those two options are still more than 3 times the cost of VPG’s Retrofit.  In their prior retrofit studies WSDoT projected extension of structural life by 50-75 years.  In lost commute hours alone, the 8 to 10 years of Tunnel/Rebuild construction closures of SR99 will cost the public $140 Million annually.  Lost work time and business exodus represent hidden costs of Tunnel and Rebuild which WSDoT and SDoT refuse to acknowledge.

We, the undersigned engineers, are or have been principals of leading Seattle engineering firms each representing experience of over 30 years.  Our work includes building, bridges, structural renovations, including work for the City of Seattle and WSDoT.

The monies saved by the Viaduct Retrofit can be used toward other urgently needed traffic improvements which today are only partially funded or entirely unfunded.  As representatives of Seattle Residents, we urge this Council to allow voters the choice of Retrofit on the November ballot.

Yours truly,

Victor Gray, M.S.,P.E.                Neil Twelker, Ph.D., P.E.        Jack Christiansen, P.E.
Sidney L. Porter, P.E.                Thomas Kane, P.E.
Harold Roe, P.E.                       Dean Ratti, P.E.
William Ward, P.E.,S.E.             Adrian Arnold, P.E.

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The Seattle P-I reports the story: A longer shelf life for the viaduct

Comments

[M. Liam Callahan]

Thank you finally some authoritative input. Please press the issue.

[Rick]

Support saving the viaduct with these pro-viaduct t-shirts. We need to be heard.

[Bill James]

There is a big carrot and a bigger stick for changing from oil based infrastructure to sustainable infrastructure.

Big Carrot: Automating highly repetitive travel provides a profit of about 27 cents per passenger mile, congestion relief and personal mobility regardless of age, wealth or capacity to drive a car. A 140 mile Physical-Internet, network of ultra-light JPods can deployed in Seattle for less than repairing the Viaduct. It would take 600,000 car trips a day off the highways and streets. Please review at www.jpods.com.

Bigger Stick: The stick is bigger and has spikes of Global Warming and Peak Oil.

On Oct 30, 2006 the British Treasury issued the Sterns Report stating that 1% of world GDP must be immediately invested in curbing Green House Gases or the consequence of Global Warming will be a 20% collapse of world GDP in the immediate future. Hardships are estimated on the level of the Great Depression and World Wars. At least 200 million people will be displaced refugees.

Peak Oil is the maximum rate of oil extraction. The profile of most oil fields is a plateau, an upward ramp from discovery, a flat top at peak extraction and a downward ramp after the easiest oil to extract is extracted, a tail of low level extraction until it becomes uneconomical to work the field. Adding all the current worlds oil fields up indicates we are very near or at Peak Oil. An indicator of this is the tripling of oil prices in the last 6 years. There is still lots of oil, we are just at the end of securely available (low political risk), cheap (less than $100 per barrel)oil. Review this webcast for a balanced presentation: http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

The most optimistic of the major forecasts (BP, Exxon, IEA, OPEC, etc...) is that we have 26 years until Peak Oil. It has taken 37 years to deploy the Internet to our current level of access. It will take at least 50 years to re-tool transportation, industries, etc... to be independent of oil. We are in real trouble if we do not act immediately to deploy sustainable infrastructure.

Spending money to increase our dependence on oil is a waste of money. Likely by the time the project is finished, gas will be too expensive for those who would used it to make use of it.