All roads lead to one big viaduct mess. He could be correct. In any case he offers the best political analysis so far of the Viaduct by any media.
However, his humorous-but-serious column ignores one small issue: Just as the danger from WMDs in Iraq was not so great as the Bush adminstration told us, the Viaduct may not be in as bad a shape as some people would like us to believe.
Aurora Avenue (SR 99 north of Denny Way) has a posted speed limit of 40 MPH. SR 99 when it turns into The Viaduct (all two miles of it) is posted for 50 MPH — as it has been for decades. When SR99 comes down to earth south of downtown the speed limit is (and I'd better check this) 45MPH.
Ask yourself: if the Viaduct is in such imminent danger of collapse, wouldn't the first thing a WSDoT engineer — sincerely and seriously concerned for public safety — would do is to lower the speed limit to minimize additional stress on the structure?
Uh...maybe so. It's common to lower speed limits whenever you have a weakened bridge; you see it all the time in rural areas where the political urgency to strengthen structures is low. Vehicles at 50 MPH create more vibration etc etc (and vibration is stress) than those going at 40 MPH. Why not on the Viaduct? Why is it business-as-usual as if there was little increased danger? The impact on the corridor's capacity — "throughput" — would appear to be minimal if you lowered the speed on just the elevated structure.
That doesn't mean that the Viaduct does not need repair but only that it strikes me as curious and a bit too convenient that we are told over-and-over that the Viaduct is failing but yet no action is taken to minimize its structural degradation. Look at it in terms of your own house. You go out one day and notice a crack in the foundation wall. So you call up your cousin the structural engineer and he takes a look and say, "Well, it looks to me that it's probably been there a long time. So why don't you just monitor it and we'll see if gets worse. There are lots of ways we can repair it." Of course, if you wanted, and you had someone else to pay for it, you could use that small crack in the foundation as a make-weight to justify tearing it down and building a new house.
Then again, if the crack was well-advanced and needed significant work, you might ask the person managing the property (obviously not likely unless the house is Bill Gates' mansion) why they hadn't alerted you to the problem years back. And would you be likely to put repair of the foundation in the hands of the person who had been negligent in monitoring it all those years?
But read Joel's column for yourself.
One small quibble and it is not to be underestimated in the political dynamics: SEPA (our State Environmental Policy Act) exempts emergency repairs. Thus the Retrofit is exempt from SEPA — and thus lawsuits. Huge advantage to the Retrofit. And to the Governor who can step into the breach created by floundering locals, seize the initiative and appear decisive by declaring an emergency. It could be the perfect opportunity for Gov. Christine Gregoire to convince voters she is worthy or re-election.
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Btw, I am surprised/disappointed that the P-I didn't open Joel's column to remarks from readers. I am sure it would have stimulated a great deal of comment — and a lot of it quite fruitful and useful to the public conversation as it is so unusual to see the media "play" with ideas and scenarios. (Part of my objection to The Stranger's "advocacy journalism" is not so much with the opinions themselves but with its straight-ahead we-know-the-truth certainty which acts to limit thinking rather than promote it.)