Impact of high oil on the spatial economy

DanB writes here:

"Your comparison regarding trips to Renton makes sense only if you assume that it is necessary for people to shop at big box stores. It is quite possible that the big box model will not survive in the world of peak oil and GHG gas emissions regulation"

I am not quite sure I follow Dan about the big box stores. I think that many people are overstating the impact of higher oil prices on the spatial economy.

Here's an example. Even assuming gas at $6/gallon, I don't see how a mom-and-pop store can compete with big box stores for a host of consumer goods such as appliances, electronics, books etc.

Think about it from the pov of a consumer. Let's say I live 7.5 miles from a Costco. That's 15 miles round trip. In my gas-guzzling 15 mpg car at $3/gallon it costs me $3 to get there last year. Two years from now $6/gallon it will cost me an additional $3. That's trivial If I am expecting to spend greater than $3-4 hundred for a big ticket item like an appliance or new TV or a month's worth of food, especially when I can save many times that $3 and get a far wider choice at the big-box. Plus neighborhood appliance and electronic stores simply no longer exist; and the idea of re-establishing them seems unlikely. As a consumer (and maybe even an environmentalist) it is well-worth the $3 to have a wide choice so immediately available in one location. It saves time, effort and gas as I don't have to look further at five small shops to get the same choice I get at one large one. Do you think that such efficient choice may be one of the reasons for the overwhelming success of the big box in the first place? Maybe?

(In fact, interestingly enough, I live within 7 miles from 3 Costcos and with 10 miles from 3 more. And I assume that I am not unusual.)

The economic logic of the big-box is powerful and eliminating it does not strike me as realistic. I believe that our prime choice is to civilize the big-box, make it use its space more efficiently and I think that is quite doable.

Btw, none of this is to say that high oil will not have enormous ramifications but I think that the impacts on the spatial organization of cities is sometimes overstated.