Think it's that many?

Chris Leinberger says so:

CL: With drivable sub-urbanism, there were so many possible locations to build. The result of having so much choice was that the value of the land was degraded. Developers used a piece of land, threw it away, and moved on. That's why we have 10,000 abandoned or dying strip centers in this country. (italics added)

Ten thousand?

I guess it all comes down to definition of "abandoned or dying." I see plenty of old junky strip centers with low-rent tenants. But they are not vacant; far from it. And I know that at least in Seattle-proper that means they will likely be redeveloped in the next decade or so with higher-density buildings.

Are there literally "10,000 abandoned or dying strip centers in this country?" Which have no likelihood of near-term redevelopment? And are not merely evidence of the evolution of American real estate?

Comments

[Dale]

I believe it. Leinberger's been around Southeast Michigan.

[JRoth]

Yeah, there's a single highway leading from Pittsburgh to prosperous suburbs that is lined with run-down, empty or half-empty strip malls that have been that way for at least 10 years. There's been retail development all around them, but they remain eyesores and blight (they're all owned by one company, and I suspect that they could be redone by someone else, but that's another discussion. They're there, have been for a long time, and wouldn't be without the kind of dynamic Leinberger describes).

Point being, you could probably locate 50 shopping center/strip malls meeting this description within Pittsburgh's Allegheny County, and it just keeps going up as you go outwards. 10,000 may be a rounded-up round number, but it's not wrong by an order of magnitude.

[jmc]

Yeah, I'd estimate that as accurate, having driven around Michigan and some parts of Northern Ohio and Indiana...

While many cities are growing and replacing strip malls with condos, some cities are dying.

[Chris Leinberger]

Just so you know, the 10,000 number comes from Professor Arthur C. Nelson of Virginia Tech. It is his catculation based upon a variety of industry sources. For those who have traveled on Memorial Drive east of Atlanta, Sepulveda Avenue on the west side of LA, route 1 up and down the east coast and countless other strip commercial places, that estimate does not seem too out of line. These obsolete strips offer a lot of opportunities for redevelopment; as seen on Central Avenue in Albuquerque just east of downtown (area called EDO), most Metro stops in Arlington, VA, or on route 1 in Hyattsville in Maryland.

Chris Leinberger

BTW, the person who commented about my only knowing SE Michigan, I count that part of the country a place I know well for many years. However, having lived in Philadelphia, Boston, SF, LA, Santa Fe and now DC and having run an international real estate consulting firm, I know most of the major metros in this country pretty well. Though SE Michigan sure does have more than its far share of obsolete strips.